Former President Trump now leads President Joe Biden in five out of six crucial swing states by substantial margins, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times and Sierra College.
Voters polled in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan all expressed a preference for Trump in the 2024 election over Biden at a margin of three to 10 points, with the swing state of Wisconsin being the exception, where Biden holds a slight lead over Trump, according to the poll. With voters “overwhelmingly” viewing the country moving in the wrong direction, Biden’s “multiracial and multigenerational coalition” seems to be falling apart at the seams, the Times reported.
A Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll likewise showed Trump edging ahead in an average of several swing states, leading Biden 47% to 43% in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll, conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 10, showed Trump ahead in all of the battleground states except Michigan, where he was tied with Biden, and Nevada, which favored Biden by three points.
Though Trump eked out a presidential victory in 2016 with the help of several of these swing states, including Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Biden won all six important swing states in 2020.
Many groups that have traditionally supported Biden and the Democrats registered much softer support in the poll. Biden’s lead among Hispanics was down to single digits, and his lead among under 30 voters is down to a mere percentage point, according to the Times.
President Biden is trailing Donald Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found. https://t.co/vkZgb4pC8G
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 5, 2023
The poll shows Trump with 22% support from African Americans, a group which Trump got a mere 8% in 2020. Should Trump receive 22% of the black vote in November, it would represent the largest support from black voters in decades.
If these poll results hold true for next November, Trump would be slated to win 300 electoral college votes, far above the 270 required to win, the Times reports.
Voters view Biden as being “too old and” are concerned about his mental activity and policies; whereas Trump’s policies were more likely to have been viewed as helping them, according to the Times.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 22, 2023, to Nov 3, 2023, included 3,662 registered voters in six swing states, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 points.
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